Saturday, April 1, 2023

French Social Mobilizations

 Alicia never misses a protest . Like millions of French citizens, the 19 years old girl wants to prevent the government from pushing through its pension reforms. 

She wants people to be able to retire at 62.


[ Macron dehors! Travailleurs au pouvoir!

Pour une direction révolutionnaire des syndicats]

( Macron out! Workers in power!

 For a revolutionary leadership of the trade unions )


"In some countries, ( people retire ) at 67 . That's a lot , for me. This is historic. It's one of the biggest social mobilizations in the past 70 years, since May of 68. 

And against pension reform, the people have to be heard . " 


The atmosphere in Paris is half festival, half revolution. 


Some banks have boarded up their ( buildings' ) windows. They're scared of paving stones and of the population's anger against President Emmanuel Macron.  


Alicia, a law student , says he's behaving like a monarch. She is angry that his government bypassed parliament when they raised the retirement age to 64. 


"They don't want to back down. There's neither compromise nor debate. Even the unions are being ignored. That's the problem. " 


[ HEURESES AVANT D'ÊTRE VIEILLES]


(HOURS BEFORE BEING OLD)


For months, the president has been trying to convince the French that the pension system needs more funds. 


Source: French Presidential Office, 

PEM: " Do you think I'm enjoying this reform? Today there are 17 millions pensioners. In 2030, there will be 20 million (pensioners). Do you think we can continue with these rules? "


But according to polls, 2/3 ( two third ) of the French are against this reform. They are worried about their future.  


One French man says, " If you've already worked 44 years like me, there are other things to do than work. Life is already relatively short. " 


These (young women) protestors saying that Macron has declared war on them, as have the police, a reference to the tough policing of the protests. 


Alicia answering her handphone, " My mom calling. Yeah, it was my mom. She's always worried when I go to a protest . "


Many French economists are behind the president and think that the demands of the protestors are absurd.  

But some political scientists argue that there are other ways of financing the pension schemes. Some are looking to other EU ( European Union ) states for comparison.  


BRUNO PALIER, French Political Scientist, at Sciences Po University, Paris says, " In France, the working conditions for many employees have worsened. They say they can't keep up because the pressure is too much. " 

" In Germany, on the other hand, working conditions have improved. In industry, for example. " 


Many protestors say they are being exploited by the political, by the economic system, by industry. " 


Some (citizens), more radical ones, are ready to fight.

[ KFC restaurant's side wall glass panels shattered by objects ] This protestor wanted to remain anonymous, said ,

 "All social rights were more or less acquired thru violence. Fighting for them legitimized violence to some extent. "


An eldery French citizen add on, " I support them. The young people are angry. I'm old, I'm retired, but I'm also very angry. " 


This anger is shared by tens of thousands citizens. 


At the Place de l'Opéra , the situation escalated. 

 Some garbage ( on the street ) was even set on fire. The garbage has been piling up in Paris, as the (garbage) collectors - workers are also against the retirement reform and have gone on strike.

The situation is chaotic, but Alicia will continue to fight for a better future. Or at least until the president drop this reform. 

Made for minds.

2023 Deutsche Welle ( DW ) / dw.com 

Protests against Macron's reform are becoming more radical, as many French people won't accept raising the pension age. Particularly young French people are worried about their future, fearing their situation will be worse than their parents' generation.


Les protestations contre la réforme de Macron se radicalisent, car de nombreux Français n'accepteront pas de relever l'âge de la retraite. Les jeunes Français sont particulièrement inquiets pour leur avenir, craignant que leur situation ne soit pire que celle de la génération de leurs parents.

Alicia ne manque jamais une manifestation. Comme des millions de citoyens français, la jeune fille de 19 ans veut empêcher le gouvernement de faire passer sa réforme des retraites.


 Elle veut que les gens puissent prendre leur retraite à 62 ans.


 [ Macron dehors ! Travailleurs au pouvoir!


 Pour une direction révolutionnaire des syndicats]


 ( Macron out ! Travailleurs au pouvoir !


  Pour une direction révolutionnaire des syndicats )


 "Dans certains pays, (les gens prennent leur retraite) à 67 ans. C'est beaucoup, pour moi. C'est historique. C'est l'une des plus grosses mobilisations sociales des 70 dernières années, depuis mai 68.

 Et contre la réforme des retraites, le peuple doit être entendu. "


 L'ambiance à Paris est mi-fête, mi-révolution.


 Certaines banques ont barricadé leurs fenêtres (d'immeubles). Ils ont peur des pavés et de la colère de la population contre le président Emmanuel Macron.


 Alicia, étudiante en droit, dit qu'il se comporte comme un monarque. Elle est fâchée que son gouvernement ait contourné le Parlement lorsqu'il a relevé l'âge de la retraite à 64 ans.


 "Ils ne veulent pas reculer. Il n'y a ni compromis ni débat. Même les syndicats sont ignorés. C'est ça le problème."


 [ HEURESES AVANT D'ÊTRE VIEILLES]


 (HEURES AVANT D'ÊTRE VIEUX)


 Depuis des mois, le président tente de convaincre les Français que le système de retraite a besoin de plus de fonds.


 Source : Cabinet présidentiel français,

 PEM : « Pensez-vous que je profite de cette réforme ? Aujourd'hui, il y a 17 millions de retraités. En 2030, il y en aura 20 millions (de retraités). Pensez-vous qu'on peut continuer avec ces règles ?


 Mais selon les sondages, 2/3 (deux tiers) des Français sont contre cette réforme. Ils sont inquiets pour leur avenir.


 Un Français dit : « Si vous avez déjà travaillé 44 ans comme moi, il y a d'autres choses à faire que de travailler. La vie est déjà relativement courte.


 Ces (jeunes femmes) manifestants disant que Macron leur a déclaré la guerre, tout comme la police, une référence à la police dure des manifestations.


 Alicia répondant à son téléphone portable, "Ma mère appelle. Ouais, c'était ma mère. Elle est toujours inquiète quand je vais à une manifestation."


 De nombreux économistes français sont derrière le président et pensent que les revendications des manifestants sont absurdes.

 Mais certains politologues affirment qu'il existe d'autres moyens de financer les régimes de retraite. Certains se tournent vers d'autres États de l'UE (Union européenne) à des fins de comparaison.


 BRUNO PALIER, Français

 Politologue, à Sciences Po Université, Paris déclare : « En France, les conditions de travail de nombreux salariés se sont détériorées. Ils disent qu'ils ne peuvent pas suivre car la pression est trop forte.

 « En Allemagne, en revanche, les conditions de travail se sont améliorées. Dans l'industrie, par exemple.


 De nombreux manifestants se disent exploités par la politique, par le système économique, par l'industrie. "


 Certains (citoyens), plus radicaux, sont prêts à se battre.

 [ Les panneaux de verre du mur latéral du restaurant KFC ont été brisés par des objets ] Ce manifestant a voulu rester anonyme, a déclaré ,

  "Tous les droits sociaux ont été plus ou moins acquis par la violence. Se battre pour eux a légitimé la violence dans une certaine mesure."


 Un citoyen français âgé ajoute : « Je les soutiens. Les jeunes sont en colère. Je suis vieux, je suis à la retraite, mais je suis aussi très en colère.


 Cette colère est partagée par des dizaines de milliers de citoyens.


 Place de l'Opéra, la situation s'envenime.

  Des ordures (dans la rue) ont même été incendiées. Les ordures s'entassent à Paris, car les (éboueurs)-ouvriers sont eux aussi contre la réforme des retraites et se sont mis en grève.

 La situation est chaotique, mais Alicia continuera à se battre pour un avenir meilleur. Ou du moins jusqu'à ce que le président abandonne cette réforme.


  Conçu pour les esprits.

 2023 Deutsche Welle ( DW ) / dw.com




艾丽西亚从不错过一次抗议。 与数百万法国公民一样,这位 19 岁的女孩想要阻止政府推进其养老金改革。


 她希望人们能够在 62 岁退休。


 【马克龙泄气! Travailleurs au pouvoir!


 向辛迪加革命的方向前进]


 (马克龙下台!工人当权!


  为了工会的革命领导)


 “在一些国家,(人们)在 67 岁退休。对我来说,这已经很多了。这是历史性的。这是自 68 岁 5 月以来过去 70 年来最大的社会动员之一。

 反对养老金改革,必须听取人民的意见。 “


 巴黎的气氛一半是节日,一半是革命。


 一些银行已经用木板封住了他们(大楼)的窗户。 他们害怕铺路石和民众对埃马纽埃尔·马克龙总统的愤怒。


 法学院学生艾丽西亚说他的举止像君主。 她对他的政府在将退休年龄提高到 64 岁时绕过议会感到愤怒。


 “他们不想退缩。既没有妥协也没有争论。甚至工会也被忽视了。这就是问题所在。”


 [ HEURESES AVANT D'ÊTRE VIEILLES]


 (变老前的几个小时)


 几个月来,总统一直试图说服法国人养老金体系需要更多资金。


 资料来源:法国总统办公室,

 PEM:“你认为我享受这项改革吗?今天有 1700 万养老金领取者。到 2030 年,将有 2000 万(养老金领取者)。你认为我们可以继续执行这些规则吗?”


 但根据民意测验,2/3(三分之二)的法国人反对这项改革。 他们担心自己的未来。


 一位法国人说,“如果你像我一样已经工作了 44 年,那么除了工作还有其他事情要做。生命已经相对短暂了。”


 这些(年轻女性)抗议者说马克龙已经向她们宣战,警察也是如此,指的是对抗议活动的严厉监管。


 艾丽西亚接听她的手机,“我妈妈打来的。是的,是我妈妈。当我去抗议时,她总是很担心。”


 许多法国经济学家支持总统,认为抗议者的要求是荒谬的。

 但一些政治学家认为,还有其他为养老金计划筹资的方式。 有些人正在寻找其他欧盟(European Union)国家进行比较。


 BRUNO PALIER,法国人

 巴黎政治大学政治学家说,“在法国,许多员工的工作条件恶化了。他们说他们跟不上,因为压力太大了。”

 “另一方面,在德国,工作条件有所改善。例如在工业领域。”


 许多抗议者表示,他们正在被政治、经济体系和工业剥削。 “


 一些(公民),更激进的,准备战斗。

 [肯德基餐厅的侧墙玻璃板被物体打碎]这位抗议者希望保持匿名,他说,

  “所有的社会权利或多或少都是通过暴力获得的。为之奋斗在某种程度上使暴力合法化。”


 一位年长的法国公民补充说,“我支持他们。年轻人很生气。我老了,我退休了,但我也很生气。”


 数以万计的公民都表达了这种愤怒。


 在歌剧院广场,情况升级了。

  一些垃圾(在街上)甚至被点燃。 垃圾堆积在巴黎,因为(垃圾)收集者 - 工人也反对退休改革并罢工。

 局势一片混乱,但艾丽西亚会继续为更美好的未来而奋斗。 或者至少在总统放弃这项改革之前。


  为思想而生。

 2023 德国之声 (DW) / dw.com


反对马克龙改革的抗议活动正变得越来越激进,因为许多法国人不接受提高领取养老金的年龄。 尤其是年轻的法国人担心自己的未来,担心自己的处境会比父辈更糟。


https://www.msn.com/en-au/video/news/protests-against-macrons-reform/vi-AA19iPvI?t=230


Why are the French mad about raising the retirement age to 64? Isn't retiring later a choice? 

I have been commenting a lot about this question, so I will try to make a synthesis of my comments here:


1 - I would like people to avoid this condescending attitude consisting of saying that what the French want are fairytales, and that they (the people who comment) are in reality. Things are not that simple as they think. When european people first thought of paid vacations, of 8 hours per day of work, or of one day off per week, they were the only ones, in a world where people were working as slaves until the day they died. Firm owners were saying it was not economically feasible. But it was. Each time there has been an improvement in the social conditions of the workers, there was this argument: it’s not like this in other parts of the world, it’s not economically sustainable, but eventually we saw that… it was bullshit. So, let’s avoid being condescendent. It’s not that simple and even experts on this topic do not agree. Remember the Covid crisis and the recommendations given by the doctors, which were not saying all the same and who were changing their discourse from one moment to another. And it’s not necessarily what “looks more serious” which is the best solution. For instance the zero covid policy, apparently the most serious policy, led China to a catastrophe. To be flexible and imaginative is frequently a good idea.


2 - By the way, what made French people angry, was precisely that Macron had this same condescending approach, saying in summary that “there is no alternative” (the famous “TINA”) and that French people are stupid spoiled children. That is the root of the current violence, because we don’t think we are stupid and we are not against making an effort but first we want to have proofs that it is necessary, and the fact that other people are doing it is not a proof (see again my example of the zero covid policy)


3 - Most people don’t understand the French system: 62 or 64 years old is only one condition to retire. If you want to have the full pension, you need to have also 43 years of contributions. Which means that if you studied a Master, you finished at 23, and will retire at 66. The age of 62 is just a minimum, but most people having studied get retired much later. Some people go to work abroad during a few years, and so they don’t contribute during a few years to the French regime, so these people will have to retire at 67 or later. Conversely, for people who work since 16 years old, to wait until 62 is enough, and 64 is too much. People who are judging of it are seeing it wrong. They imagine that a guy who studied until 24 and went to work 3 years abroad can retire at 62. No, he can but will have a ridiculously low pension. If he wants to have a decent pension, he will have to work until 67, 68, or more.


4 - France has specificity. Some writers say that we spend 14% of GDP in pensions, while the average in OECD is 8%. That’s true. But you have to add the private pensions. For instance, in the USA or in Australia, private pensions are close to 7% of GDP, so that in the USA you have 7% public + 7% private, so the same spending as in France:

The French system is a system 100% public, based on repartition (pay as you go system), and with almost no capitalization (funded system). But it’s not going through taxes, the budget of pension scheme is managed independently, by the caisse nationale d’Assurance vieillesse, a branch of the Social Security. It’s not money from the taxes. So we can identify if the pension regime is in surplus or in deficit.


5 - Notice also that the French fertility is higher than other countries, which is important in a regime of repartition, in which the current workers are financing the current pensioners. French fertility is around 1,8, while it’s 1,3 in Greece, and 1,4 in Japan, two countries which are by the way much more indebted than France.


6 - The problem we face is not so much that we live longer. The first pension system in 19th century was financed by a contribution of 1% of salary paid by the worker + 1% paid by the employer, but the people were living much less, and they frequeltly didn’t reach the retirement age. Now, we frequently pay in France half of our supergross salary to finance the system. So we are already paying for the fact that we live longer, because we are already paying more in contributions.


7 - The problem we face is linked with the boomer generation. This generation, born between 1945 and 1960, are today aged of 63 to 78. It’s a very big cohort, a generation with a lot of people. And this people are now retired. So this is putting a stress on the pension system. Nevertheless, in 2020 our pension system had a deficit of 13 billion, then in 2021 a surplus of 0,9 billion, then in 2022 a surplus of 3 billion. It’s difficult to forecast the surplus or deficit because it depends on economic activity, if the economy is better, there are more people employed, more contributions and therefore more income in the system. Demographics is a key aspect, but economics is also important in order to foresee the deficit or surplus of the system. The worst scenarios tell us that the deficit of the system could be between 0,5% and 0,8% of the GDP, during the next 20 years, knowing that after those 20 years, the generation of the boomer will be gone, and they will be replaced by less numerous cohorts. So we face a potential deficit of around 0,5% of GDP during 20 years. It’s not negligible but for instance the Covid Crisis cost 80 billion in subsidies to the firms, and 160 billion of loans from the State to the firms. The “bouclier tarifaire” (tarif shield) which is the help to households to mitigate the raise of energy price, cost 24 billion of euros in 2022, and will cost 44 billion in 2023. If we add the subsidieds to the firms the total impact of subsidies given to mitigate the raise of energy is expected to be between 110 billion and 170 billion in the term 2022–2027. According to certain studies the cost of subprime crisis of 2008 has been close to 150 billion of dollars (for France), some estimates giving even bigger figures. So, really, 13 billion of euros per year during 20 years is not that much, and it can be financed otherwise.


8 - People giving lessons to the French on how to manage our pension system should be considering the percentage of old age poverty in their own countries, compared to France: we are doing great, and countries with private systems are doing poorly in mitigating pensioners poverty: [see ** below]

Where Is Pensioner Poverty The Most Prevalent?

% of people aged 65+ living in relative income poverty in selected OECD countries


Netherlands 2.0

France 3.8

Canada 6.7

Spain 6.8

Greece 6.9

Ireland 6.9

Poland 8.4

Italy 9.3

Germany 9.4

United Kingdom 13.4

Turkey 18.4

Japan 19.4

United States 21.5

Australia 35.5

South Korea 49.6


* Income poverty refers to income below half the national median equivalised household income.


Source: OECD

Forbes statista.

[ ** : For point number eight I'm not sure it supports your argument. If your ratio of working poor is higher than your ratio of retired poor it suggests that too much money is being transferred from workers to retirees.

It is, of course, a decision that must be made on a national basis and it seems the majority of the French are in favour of such transfers; but as an outsider it seems unfair that someone who works should be poorer than those whose retirement they must help pay for.

• This is a good point. It's difficult to know if there are more working poor than poor retirees because the statistics about working poor take the poverty as 60% of median income while here poverty is 50% of median income. Nevertheless I guess there are more working poor (8% if defined as less than 60% of median income) than poor retirees.

I think it's a choice of civilization: traditionally we tend to think that older people have to be treated with more respect. Besides this aspect, old age poverty is different from working poverty because you can go out of working poverty if you have a little bit of luck, but you can never go out of old age poverty. Finally it must be argued that old age needs more ressources than younger forms of poverty, because it's more difficult to do basic things and you need to be helped.

Actually this appears in our social policy. In France old people are entitled to ask for the “aspa" (allocation de solidarité aux personnes âgées) which is 961 euros per month, while a younger person without ressources can only ask for the “rsa", revenu de solidarité active, which is 607 euros per month. ]

On average in the OECD, 14.1% of individuals aged over 65 live in relative income poverty, defined as having an income below half the national median equivalised household disposable income. Their income gap to the relative poverty line is 23.8% on average.

I hope I was clear and that my English was not too bad, I wrote this post rather quickly. My apologies for the mistakes.


Edit: I made some technical mistakes in English.

Repartition= pay as you go system

Capitalization= funded system

Excedent= surplus

Thanks for these corrections.

Study in 2019, SINGAPORE — A Singaporean senior citizen aged 65 years and above and living alone needs about S$1,379 a month to meet basic standards of living.

The amount increases to S$1,721 for those aged between 55 years and 64 years. 

As for couples aged 65 years and older, they need S$2,351 a month. 

Basic needs must go beyond subsistence. It must also ensure quality of life.

Budgets should enable older adults to thrive rather than just stay alive.

Establishing an agreed floor below which no one should fall is critical to tackle inequality.

Food accounted for the largest expenditure component, while recreational activities made up the smallest share. 

In a 2016 newsletter by the Department of Statistics, it found that households with a head aged 60 and above had a monthly expenditure of S$3,590.


With an average household size of 2.9, this means that each household member was spending an average of S$1,240 monthly.


Based on the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM) 2017 data, the median monthly income for workers 60 years old and above is S$2,000 — which is about 1.5 times the budget for households with one elder that the researchers came up with.

The median monthly income in 2018 is S$2,352, based on MOM’s latest data.

For older people who are working as cleaners, machine operators and sales personnel — the three most common occupations among elders — their median monthly income range from 0.9 to 1.2 times of the budget developed by the researchers.

This is the same for older people who have lower secondary education or less.

GAPS THAT NEED TO BE PLUGGED

Based on these comparisons, researchers said that the low work incomes of older people mean that employment alone does not ensure that they would have enough to meet their basic needs.

While there are a range of government schemes to help meet some of these needs, the study concluded that it offers “limited coverage”.

This is because people who want to access public assistance schemes such as ComCare and the Silver Support Scheme have to go through means-testing.

As such, ComCare assistance reach less than 1 per cent of the elderly population.

The minimum retirement age is 62, but the law requires employers to offer reemployment to workers up to the age of 67. The national public pension scheme, known as the Central Provident Fund (CPF), pays out from the age of 65.

Given that monthly payouts from one’s Central Provident Fund (CPF) savings is estimated at between S$730 and S$790 if an individual has enough to meet the Basic Retirement Sum when he or she turns 55 years old, the study highlighted that this covers less than 60 per cent of the budget.

Compounding this issue is the fact that only 55 per cent of CPF members who turned 55 in 2013 hit the Basic Retirement Sum. This means that half of retirees will receive less than S$730 a month.

“There will be a segment among the older population who do not have the means to retire, and who may have to supplement their incomes through informal transfers and personal savings to meet basic needs,” said the research team.

Informal sources refer to family contributions and donations from charities.

But the study also stated that the reliance on gross-generational family support is “demographically unsustainable as family size shrinks”.

It may even further reinforce economic inequality as lower- and middle-income households tend to use up a higher proportion of their income, as compared to higher-income households, to support elderly parents.

The study stated: “In a context of high wage inequalities; absence of universal provisions in healthcare and retirement support; and modest levels of redistribution on a societal level; we can expect that the meeting of basic needs will be uneven.

“There must be a decisive shift away from a dependence on family as the main response to this challenge.”


The Central Provident Fund (CPF) Basic Retirement Sum will be raised by 3.5 per cent per year for the next five cohorts of CPF members turning 55 from 2023 to 2027.

This is to provide them with higher monthly CPF payouts in their retirement years, given the rising costs of living in Singapore.

The Basic Retirement Sum for those turning 55 this year (2022) is $96,000.


The 3.5 per cent increase means that the sum will be :

$99,400 in 2023, 

$102,900 in 2024, 

$106,500 in 2025, 

$110,200 in 2026, 

and $114,100 in 2027.


The Basic Retirement Sum provides CPF members with monthly payouts to cover their basic living expenses during retirement.

There is no requirement for members to top up their CPF if they are unable to set aside the Basic Retirement Sum.

Those who set aside the sum when they turn 55 in 2027 will receive payouts of nearly $1,000 a month when they are 65, which will continue for the rest of their lives.


*** 

  1. It is a fairytale to suggest that côtisations are not taxes when they are mandatory, just like taxes.
  2. If the caisse is in deficit for several years running and exhausts its reserves, the taxpayer will pick up the bill or the caisse will default. Unlikely since it is state backed. Keeping the state pension segregated in separate accounts just keeps its balance transparent, but does not make it any better funded.
  3. Considering the size and huge cost of child benefits, the French birthrate is still pitiful by European standards and the country will only see its seniors increase sharply in number for many years to come.
  4. If pensions are provided also by the private sector in other countries, then that removes a burden from the state. It does not create an equal burden on the country. That is fantasy economics to justify the state crowding out private enterprise in France. Quite bizarre reasoning.
  5. Your problem is not going away and France is not an exception. 
In France the poverty line is fixed at 1100 euros per individual.

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